The past couple of days, we've looked at various factors that are considered important when making a bet. This time we're taking a look at yet another factor that help's myself and Premier Information in the selection process: Class.
This can have a massive impact on our assessment in the selection process. Class is permanent, form is temporary. In racing, class can be described as the quality of opposition a horse races against.
A horse that is raised in class usually has to improve in order to succeed. A horse running in the same class needs to reproduce its best level of form to succeed and a horse dropped in class may merely need to just run relatively close to its normal ability to win.
A wise trainer will often have his horses running against the very best horses at the highest grade the horse will qualify for. Then, when the horse has maybe shown some consistency, drop it in class. By dropping it in class the horse has much less to do to win. This is something we look for all the time. Imagine an athlete competing in the Olympic Games. His best performance gets him a bronze medal. Let’s imagine he cannot possibly achieve better. However, if you then take that athlete to a minor competition at, say, a regional level, you would expect him to be head and shoulders above the lower class opposition. He would then win and win well.The same applies to horses. If you see a horse that has been running to a consistent level of form, which is then dropped significantly in grade, is fit and looks to be facing moderate opposition, then this could be excellent circumstances in which to place a bet.
Backing a horse going up in class is a different proposition. Many horses fail to win when raised in class. However, if the horse is improving rapidly, is likely to be fitter than it was in its last run and has shown an ability beyond its previous grade, then it is possible that the horse can step up in grade and continue its progression and win. It is by no means out of the question for horses to be raised in class and win. However, some horses winning impressively at a low grade can flatter to deceive. It is all about making an objective assessment.
So far, we have looked at form, fitness and class. Next on the cards we will consider the conditions and the “sub factors” that are so important in this aspect. Be sure to keep upto speed over at Premier Information